Bitcoin correction: levels to watch in 2025

Quick market recap: BTC pullback and immediate implications

Bitcoin (BTC) retraced sharply after testing a recent high of $93,836, setting a fresh short-term low near $90,025. This move violated an intra-hour uptrend threshold many traders were watching and briefly took dozens of large-cap altcoins out of their hourly uptrends as well.

At MEXC we continuously monitor price structure and intraday trend integrity. Our market-monitoring system flagged a higher probability of continued downside movement in the short term following the break of key hourly support, while still acknowledging that a meaningful bounce remains possible on the daily timeframe.

What happened technically

• Recent swing high: $93,836.
• Observed corrective low: $90,025.
• Pre-correction reference level where traders expected interest: ~ $90,896.
• An order placed overnight near $90,960 was hit as price traded beneath the hourly trend break, invalidating the immediate long-entry plan.
• Critical Fibonacci reference: 0.5 retracement level at approximately $91,544 — a meaningful pivot for intraday and multi-day bias.

The intraday breakdown was enough to push around 35 assets from the top 200 by market cap out of their hourly uptrends, highlighting broad short-term risk aversion across large-cap digital assets.

Short-term scenarios and levels to watch

Traders should consider two primary short-term scenarios based on where price closes relative to the 0.5 Fibonacci level.

Scenario A — Recovery above $91,544 (bull-leaning)

• If BTC recovers and sustains trade above the $91,544 0.5 Fibonacci level, intraday buyers can regain confidence.
• Reclaiming this level would likely restore the hourly trend, offering opportunities to re-enter long positions with stops below the renewed structure low.
• Confirmation would be strengthened by improved breadth across top market-cap altcoins returning to hourly uptrends.

Scenario B — Failure to reclaim $91,544 (bear-leaning)

• As long as price remains under $91,544, the probability of exiting trades to breakeven or seeing further downside increases.
• Persistent pressure below the 0.5 retracement often leads to testing deeper support zones on the daily timeframe.
• Traders should watch for additional hourly trend breaks and worsening market breadth for signs that a larger correction is developing.

Trade management and risk control

Price action in this kind of correction favors disciplined risk management. The following practical rules can help navigate the current environment:

• Use defined entries: avoid averaging into positions without a clear technical target.
• Move stops to breakeven when partial profit targets are achieved to remove downside risk on the remaining size.
• If stopped out, be patient: wait for a confirmed new hourly uptrend before adding fresh longs.
• Consider smaller position sizes while the hourly structure is compromised to reduce volatility exposure.

Setting stops to breakeven after a partial move worked in some recent trades, as it preserves capital in case of sharp reversals. However, being stopped out is not a loss of thesis — it simply requires waiting for a cleaner set-up.

Daily timeframe context: potential low formations

On the daily chart, there are signs that a low formation may be completing. Specifically, price action is approaching what many technical frameworks would identify as the third and potentially final mark of a multi-point low structure.

This means there is a reasonable chance that a corrective phase is near its end and that a meaningful bounce could begin within a short window — possibly today or within the next couple of days. That said, intraday volatility can still produce overshoots below these marks before any sustainable reversal.

How to interpret the daily context

• The daily timeframe gives higher-confidence signals, but entries from it still require discipline — prefer confirmation on lower timeframes before committing significant capital.
• If the daily low area holds and volume supports a reversal, expect improved conditions for selective long entries and altcoin rotation.
• Conversely, a decisive daily close below the daily low region would increase the probability of a deeper correction and invite reassessment of position sizing and targets.

Market breadth and altcoin behavior

The breakdown affected many top-cap altcoins on the hourly timeframe, demonstrating how BTC’s intraday weakness can cascade through correlated assets.

• Watch capitalization-weighted breadth — if Bitcoin declines while altcoin breadth diverges (fewer alts falling or more showing relative strength), the risk to alt allocations declines.
• In the current episode, around 35 of the top 200 projects lost hourly trend integrity — a reminder that risk is not isolated to BTC moves alone.
• For traders focused on altcoins, prioritize projects with clear support and relative strength during BTC pullbacks.

2025 macro and sector outlook

Looking beyond the immediate price action, several 2025 themes may shape crypto market behavior and trader strategies:

• Institutional flows and product offerings continue to evolve. Liquidity from institutional channels can amplify intraday moves but also provide more structural demand when product adoption increases.
• Regulatory clarity in key jurisdictions has progressed compared to prior years. Clearer frameworks tend to reduce headline-driven volatility over time, though transitional volatility remains possible as rules are implemented.
• Post-halving market dynamics and macro conditions (rates, risk sentiment) will interact with crypto-specific catalysts. Lower global interest rate uncertainty in 2025 could help risk assets, but markets remain sensitive to macro surprises.
• Layer-1 and Layer-2 developments, plus increasing real-world use cases, will continue to drive selective altcoin interest. Dozens of projects will still exhibit higher beta to BTC moves.

These structural factors mean that while short-term technicals define immediate risk, the broader 2025 backdrop could provide higher-probability buying opportunities when technical conditions align.

Practical playbook for traders

Here’s a concise action plan aligned with the current setup and 2025 outlook:

• Monitor $91,544: use it as the primary pivot for bias on intraday timeframes.
• If long, tighten stops to breakeven or below newly formed hourly structure lows.
• If stopped out, avoid immediate re-entry — require a confirmed hourly trend restoration before loading back in.
• Keep position sizes moderate while hourly trend integrity is not yet restored.
• For swing traders, watch daily structure for the potential third low mark and seek confirmations (volume, momentum divergence) before committing significant capital.
• Use limit entries and defined risk-to-reward targets — aim for setups that offer at least 1.5–2x reward relative to risk.

Where to execute and monitor trades

MEXC provides a robust trading interface and market data tools that can help you monitor key levels and execute disciplined trade plans. Access live order books, set advanced stop and take-profit parameters, and follow real-time market signals to stay aligned with evolving price action. Learn more and trade on MEXC: https://www.mexc.com.

Summary and next steps

Bitcoin’s pullback from $93,836 to roughly $90,025 broke an important hourly trend, temporarily disrupting bullish intraday structure for BTC and several large-cap alts.

The immediate bias hinges on the 0.5 Fibonacci level near $91,544. Sustained trade above that level favors a re-entry into bullish intraday setups; failure to reclaim it increases the odds of exiting to breakeven and facing further correction.

Maintain disciplined risk control: move stops to breakeven when appropriate, wait for confirmed hourly trends before re-entering after a stop-out, and watch the daily timeframe for larger low-formation signals that may mark a durable turning point.

As 2025 progresses, broader structural themes — institutional flows, regulatory clarity, and on-chain adoption — will remain important context for interpreting price moves. Combine that macro awareness with the technical playbook above to navigate the coming market sessions.

Disclaimer: This post is a compilation of publicly available information.
MEXC does not verify or guarantee the accuracy of third-party content.
Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment or participation decisions.