Dogecoin inflow and the wedge: Will buyers hold in 2025?

Key takeaways

• A 162 million DOGE deposit to a major retail trading venue increased near-term sell-side liquidity, creating added pressure around current levels.
• DOGE is compressing inside a descending wedge between roughly $0.1518 support and $0.1819 resistance; a decisive break should set the next directional bias.
• On-chain and derivatives metrics — including Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), Open Interest (OI), and liquidation patterns — point to rising participation and a growing probability of near-term volatility.
• 2025 market context (liquidity, regulation, macro sentiment) will influence whether a breakout favors upside continuation or a deeper correction.

Why the 162M DOGE inflow matters

Large transfers into centralized venues or retail trading platforms increase available sell-side liquidity. When a sizable deposit — in this case around 162 million DOGE — hits an exchange, it often signals potential supply that can be dumped into the market, especially if market participants expect an opportunity to exit positions.

That matters more when price is already trading inside a tightening structure. Compression limits price movement, meaning even modest additional liquidity can shift the balance between buyers and sellers. In 2025, as institutional and retail flows both remain important drivers, these sizable inflows should be monitored as potential catalysts for near-term moves.

Technical picture: the descending wedge

Dogecoin is trading inside a descending wedge framed roughly by:

• Support: ~$0.1518
• Resistance / rejection area: ~$0.1819

A descending wedge compresses price action into an apex. Typical technical behavior includes decreasing volatility and weaker rejections as the wedge tightens. That pattern often precedes a sharp directional move when the price breaks either the upper or lower boundary.

Key technical observations:

• Rejections at the wedge top have become less forceful, suggesting bearish momentum is fading.
• Support near $0.1518 has held multiple times, indicating buyers are defending that level.
• Momentum indicators such as RSI trading in mid-range (around the 40s) point to reduced downside momentum but not yet confirmed bullish strength.

Scenario targets to watch:

• Upside breakout target zone: initial resistance cluster around $0.1819, with a successful breach potentially opening a move toward $0.2150.
• Downside breakdown target zone: a failure of $0.1518 support could invite tests toward $0.1400 and beyond, depending on liquidity and broader market risk-off dynamics.

Why an apex often leads to sharp volatility

When price compresses into the wedge apex, both buyers and sellers often begin to scale positions in anticipation of a move. That accumulation of exposure can lead to sudden price acceleration once a boundary is breached. In 2025, with derivatives liquidity and retail participation elevated in many markets, those moves can be amplified by leverage and algorithmic execution.

On-chain and order flow signals

Beyond price structure, several flow-based indicators currently deserve attention.

Taker Buy CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta)

CVD data shows whether taker-side aggression is skewed to buys or sells. In the current setup, taker buy CVD remains on the bullish side, suggesting buyers have been absorbing sell orders despite the large deposit into a trading venue.

Implications:

• Buyer absorption of sell pressure implies immediate flow control remains with bulls, reducing the chance of an immediate collapse below support.
• However, large inflows still increase the potential for renewed bearish attempts if sellers coordinate around the added liquidity.

Open Interest (OI)

Open Interest recently ticked higher, signaling that speculative participation in DOGE derivatives is rising. An expanding OI while price compresses typically indicates both sides are positioning for a breakout.

Important considerations:

• OI growth does not dictacte direction, but it raises the likelihood of stronger moves as positions unwind or trigger liquidations.
• Leverage profile appears controlled at present, which can limit runaway liquidation cascades, but sudden directional moves could still produce sharp short-term volatility.

Liquidation patterns

Recent liquidation snapshots show short positions have taken disproportionate losses versus longs, which signals buyers have successfully defended immediate downside levels. Repeated short liquidations during wedge compression can erode bearish conviction.

Nevertheless, the existence of heavy on-exchange deposits means sellers can still apply pressure, especially if macro sentiment turns risk-off in 2025.

Trading implications and scenario planning

For traders and risk managers, the current confluence of a large inflow, a descending wedge, supportive CVD, and rising OI suggests preparing for increased volatility and clearly defined scenario frameworks.

Bull case

• Clean breakout above wedge resistance (~$0.1819) on volume confirmation and rising CVD.
• OI expansion accompanying the move, followed by sustained buyer flow, could see DOGE target $0.2150 and higher resistance clusters.
• Short-covering and positive sentiment catalysts (broader crypto market strength, supportive macro news) would accelerate upside follow-through.

Bear case

• Failure to absorb sell liquidity after the large deposit, followed by a decisive breakdown below $0.1518.
• Rising OI and leveraged short positioning could produce sharper downside if sellers force a liquidity sweep toward $0.1400.
• Negative 2025 macro or regulatory headlines could worsen the sell-side reaction.

Neutral / range-bound case

• Continued compression within the wedge as buyers and sellers keep testing the boundaries without decisive directional conviction.
• In this case, implied volatility may fall, and mean-reversion strategies could perform better than directional bets.

Risk management best practices

• Use clear entry and exit rules tied to the wedge boundaries rather than emotions — e.g., wait for a confirmed close above resistance or below support on volume.
• Size positions to limit downside risk and consider trailing stops if entering on breakout to protect gains from false breakouts.
• Monitor CVD and OI in real time; a breakout without supportive volume or CVD divergence may be prone to failure.
• Account for macro events in 2025 — interest rate announcements, major regulatory updates, and broader risk sentiment can shift liquidity quickly.

2025 market context: what to watch

The crypto landscape in 2025 presents a different backdrop than prior years. Key themes relevant to DOGE include:

• Elevated participation in spot and derivatives markets from both retail and institutional players, increasing the importance of OI and funding dynamics.
• Regulatory clarity in several jurisdictions, which can both support adoption and introduce episodic volatility when new rules are announced.
• Meme-coins and community-driven assets continue to react to social sentiment faster than fundamentals, making on-chain flow and social signals crucial inputs.
• Macro liquidity and risk-on/risk-off cycles remain dominant drivers of broader crypto market direction, so correlating DOGE moves with BTC and risk assets is prudent.

Practical watchlist for the next sessions

• Price action relative to $0.1518 and $0.1819 — watch for clean breaks with volume.
• Taker Buy CVD slope — sustained buyer CVD supports upside attempts.
• Open Interest changes — sharp OI increases ahead of a move can indicate a crowded trade and higher volatility risk.
• Liquidation clusters — monitor whether short or long liquidations are dominating; repeated short squeezes reduce bearish edge.
• Macro and regulatory headlines — these can quickly shift sentiment and magnify on-exchange deposit impacts.

Conclusion

The recent 162 million DOGE deposit into a centralized trading venue has raised sell-side liquidity risk while DOGE trades within a tightening descending wedge. Flow metrics such as taker buy CVD and rising Open Interest show buyers have, so far, absorbed pressure and positional participation is increasing.

As we move through 2025, the most likely near-term outcome is a volatility event when price interacts with the wedge boundary. Traders should prepare for both breakout and breakdown scenarios, use disciplined risk management, and monitor order flow and derivatives data closely to better understand which side is winning the battle for control.

Whether Dogecoin ultimately stages an upside breakout toward $0.2150 or gives way toward lower levels will depend on how buyers manage the added liquidity and how broader market conditions evolve.

Disclaimer: This post is a compilation of publicly available information.
MEXC does not verify or guarantee the accuracy of third-party content.
Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment or participation decisions.