Ethereum: Is a June-Style Reset Repeating?

Overview: Why traders are watching for a repeat of June

Ethereum has shown heightened volatility in 2025, with traders and investors closely tracking on-chain metrics for clues about the next meaningful move. A particular pattern that preceded a strong mid-year rally — a sharp contraction in Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) followed by a powerful rebound — appears to be re-emerging.

This article breaks down the on-chain signals and exchange behavior underpinning this thesis, translates them into technical price scenarios, and outlines practical considerations for market participants in the current macro and market structure environment.

What NUPL tells us and why it matters

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) measures the difference between the market value and cost basis of circulating supply. In plain terms, it estimates how much unrealized profit or loss holders are carrying.

When NUPL falls rapidly, it often indicates a redistribution phase: weaker hands are liquidated or capitulate, leaving a cleaner foundation that can precede a sustained uptrend. Conversely, elevated NUPL readings can signal excess optimism and raise the odds of corrective pressure.

The June template: a reset before a rally

Earlier in the year, Ethereum experienced a multi-stage move where an initial bounce failed to hold, NUPL declined further into a deeper reset zone, and a substantial rally followed. That sequence — a shallow bounce, a deeper washout, then a prolonged upleg — is the pattern analysts now compare to recent activity.

• Initial bounce: the market saw a relief rally that lacked conviction.
• Deeper reset: NUPL retreated further and price tested a lower support range.
• Large recovery: after the reset, price entered a multi-month rally.

That historical precedent is important because markets often behave in similar ways when the underlying dynamics — profit taking, liquidity, and positioning — are comparable.

Current on-chain picture: echoes of the reset

In mid-November, NUPL moved into a region associated with previous correction phases. A short-lived bounce quickly lost momentum, and more selling pressure returned. The pattern is consistent with a market that attempted a relief move but still required further deleveraging.

Key observations:

• NUPL briefly reached elevated mid-range values during the bounce, similar to the prior relief rally.
• Subsequent declines pushed NUPL back toward lower thresholds associated with deeper market resets.
• If NUPL follows the same trajectory as in the earlier episode, price projections align with sizable downside percentage moves from the relief highs.

Exchange flows: a supportive signal for continued weakness

Exchange net position change — the metric tracking net ETH moving in or out of exchanges — has been informative. Large outflows typically reflect accumulation or staking, while a reduction in outflows (or an increase in inflows) can coincide with selling pressure.

Recent data showed a marked slowdown in outflows compared with the early-November pace. That decline in withdrawal momentum suggests some holders shifted from accumulation back to distribution during the rally attempt, reinforcing the view that supply-side pressure remains present.

Price structure and technical levels to monitor

Ethereum remains within a broader downward channel that began in early October. Until price convincingly breaks above that channel, the bias favors testing lower supports.

Key levels to watch:

• Immediate support: around $2,920. A sustained daily close below this zone would indicate sellers are still in control.
• Primary reset target: roughly $2,466–$2,470. This area lines up with both a historical NUPL reset projection and technical support confluence.
• Invalidation for the downside thesis: reclaiming and holding above approximately $3,655 would weaken the case for a final flush lower and point toward a continuation of the rally narrative.

When multiple independent indicators converge on a similar price zone — on-chain metrics, exchange flows, and price structure — that confluence becomes a high-probability area for market reaction.

Scenarios: downside test vs. immediate recovery

Two primary scenarios are plausible over the coming weeks:

Scenario A — Final washout then sustained recovery

• Price drifts lower toward the $2,466 region as NUPL completes a deeper reset.
• Selling momentum exhausts near that zone, liquidity is absorbed, and longer-term bidders re-enter.
• A protracted recovery follows, potentially mirroring the mid-year multi-month rally seen earlier in 2025.

Scenario B — Hold and rebound from current supports

• ETH maintains above $2,920 and forms a base without retesting the lower reset range.
• Positive catalysts (macro tailwinds, institutional demand, or network developments) drive a re-acceleration higher.
• Failure to hold $3,655 in a subsequent rally would still leave the possibility of another corrective leg.

Macro and market context for 2025

Market behavior in 2025 has been shaped by several broad forces that magnify on-chain signals:

• Macro liquidity and interest-rate trends remain primary drivers for risk assets, including digital assets. Shifts in central bank posture can quickly alter risk appetite.
• Institutional participation and product innovation have increased capital flows into Ethereum markets, introducing episodes of rapid accumulation and distribution that amplify volatility.
• Regulatory clarity and network developments (staking mechanics, protocol upgrades) continue to influence holder behavior and flow dynamics.

These factors mean that on-chain setups like an NUPL reset should be interpreted alongside macro drivers rather than in isolation.

How traders and investors can approach this setup

Risk management and process matter. The following practical steps can help navigate a potential reset:

• Monitor NUPL and exchange flow metrics as barometers of distribution and accumulation.
• Use defined position sizing and staggered entries to avoid large single-point exposure.
• Set stop-loss levels that reflect your time horizon — shorter-term traders may prefer tighter controls, while longer-term buyers can plan for deeper accumulation zones.
• Watch the $2,920 and $2,466 regions closely; plan scenarios for both a breakdown and a bounce.
• Consider liquidity and slippage: larger orders executed during high volatility can trigger adverse fills.

Long-term perspective: dips can be buying opportunities

From a multi-year viewpoint, periodic resets are a normal part of market cycles. If history continues to be a guide, a deeper, orderly cleanup can set the stage for stronger, more sustainable gains later.

That said, individual investors should align any accumulation strategy with their risk tolerance, investment horizon, and broader portfolio allocation.

Conclusion: watch for a potential reset but remain flexible

Current on-chain signals and exchange behavior point toward the possibility of a June-style reset unfolding again: an initial weak bounce, a deeper NUPL-driven washout, and the potential for a substantial rebound thereafter. Technical structure and flow data both suggest the $2,466–$2,470 area is a key zone to watch.

However, markets are dynamic. If price holds above the initial support and reclaims higher thresholds, the downside thesis will lose credibility. Traders should therefore avoid binary assumptions and prepare for multiple paths forward.

In 2025’s complex market environment, the best approach combines attention to on-chain metrics with disciplined risk management and awareness of macro drivers. That mix will help navigate whatever the next chapter in Ethereum’s price action brings.

Disclaimer: This post is a compilation of publicly available information.
MEXC does not verify or guarantee the accuracy of third-party content.
Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment or participation decisions.