Bitcoin fell 16.5% in November 2025 it’s worst performance since 2019. Why “Moonvember’s” 42% average gain is misleading, what historical cycles reveal, and whether this breaks the bull market or sets up a bottom.
November has a legendary reputation in crypto circles. Traders call it “Moonvember”, a playful reference to Bitcoin’s historical tendency to rally during the year’s eleventh month. The data seemingly backs this up: Bitcoin’s average November return sits at 42%, the highest of any month, with 8 out of 12 Novembers since 2013 finishing green.
But November 2025 is shattering that narrative.
As of November 19, Bitcoin plunged 16.5% this month, extending the total drawdown to nearly $34,000 from its October peak of $126,080. This makes November 2025 Bitcoin’s worst-performing eleventh month since 2019, when BTC crashed 17.27% during the aftermath of regulatory crackdowns and macro uncertainty. More concerning: it’s the first time since 2019 that Bitcoin has recorded consecutive negative months, with October’s “Uptober” also disappointing at -3.8%.
For traders who were positioned for the typical “Moonvember” rally expecting Bitcoin to blast toward $130,000-$140,000, the reality check has been brutal. Long liquidations exceeded $220 million in a single hour earlier this week. Bitcoin ETFs bled $2.96 billion in November outflows. Even Bitcoin whales are selling at record
So what happened? Why did “Moonvember” become “Gloomvember”? And more importantly: does this break the current bull cycle, or is this simply the mid-cycle correction that historically precedes the final explosive rally?
This article examines Bitcoin’s actual November performance across cycles, reveals why the 42% average is statistically misleading, and explores what historical patterns suggest about what comes next.
The Moonvember Myth: Why 42% Is the Wrong Number
Let’s start by debunking the statistics that created the “Moonvember” hype in the first place.
Bitcoin’s average November return of 42% sounds impressive—and it’s technically accurate. But here’s the problem: that number is heavily distorted by a single outlier event that skews the entire dataset.
November 2013: The Outlier That Broke the Average
In November 2013, Bitcoin surged 449.35%. Yes, you read that correctly—Bitcoin nearly 5.5x’d in a single month. This was during Bitcoin’s first mainstream mania, when it went from obscure internet money to global headlines. CNBC covered it. Your relatives asked about it at Thanksgiving. And the price exploded from roughly $200 to over $1,100.
That single month accounts for most of “Moonvember’s” reputation. Remove 2013 from the calculation, and Bitcoin’s average November return drops to just 9.35%; far less spectacular and barely different from October’s performance.
Mean vs. Median: The Statistical Reality
When analyzing Bitcoin’s November performance, the median return tells a more honest story than the mean (average):
– Mean (average): 42% (distorted by 2013’s outlier)
– Median (typical): 8.81% (actual middle value across all Novembers)
The median represents what a “normal” November looks like. Half of Bitcoin’s Novembers performed better than 8.81%, and half performed worse. This is a far cry from the explosive gains the “Moonvember” narrative promises.
The Historical Record: Not as Consistent as You Think
Here’s Bitcoin’s actual November performance from 2013 to 2024:
Green Novembers (8 total):
– 2013: +449.35% (outlier)
– 2014: +12.82%
– 2015: +19.27%
– 2016: +5.42%
– 2017: +53.48%
– 2020: +42.95%
– 2023: +8.81%
– 2024: +37.29%
Red Novembers (4 total):
– 2018: -36.57%
– 2019: -17.27%
– 2021: -7.11%
– 2022: -16.23%
Notice the pattern? November isn’t reliably bullish—it’s extremely volatile. The month tends to mark major inflection points in Bitcoin’s cycle: tops (2013, 2017, 2021) and bottoms (2018, 2019, 2022). It’s a month of decision, not guaranteed gains.
And now, November 2025 is shaping up to join the red category, currently down 16.5% and on pace to match or exceed the 2019 decline.
Comparing November 2025 to Previous Cycles: Where Are We?
Understanding whether November 2025’s weakness breaks the bull market requires examining where we are in Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle.
The Four-Year Cycle Pattern
Bitcoin operates on approximately four-year cycles driven by halving events (when miner rewards are cut in half). Each cycle follows a rough template:
1. Year 1 (Post-Halving Bear): Bottom formation, accumulation
2. Year 2 (Recovery): Gradual rally, regaining losses
3. Year 3 (Bull Market): Major rally, new all-time highs
4. Year 4 (Cycle Top): Parabolic blow-off, eventual peak
The current cycle began in November 2022 (the bottom) following the May 2024 halving. This puts us in Year 3 of the cycle—historically, the year when Bitcoin makes its most significant gains and reaches new all-time highs.
How November 2025 Compares to Similar Cycle Positions
Let’s compare November 2025 to equivalent periods in previous cycles:
2017 Cycle (Similar Position):
– November 2017 was Year 3 post-halving (July 2016)
– Bitcoin rallied +53.48% in November 2017
– Reached cycle peak in December 2017 at ~$20,000
– Outcome: November marked acceleration into final blow-off top
2021 Cycle (Similar Position):
– November 2021 was Year 3 post-halving (May 2020)
– Bitcoin declined -7.11% in November 2021
– Reached cycle peak in November 2021 at $69,000
– Outcome: November marked the cycle top; bear market followed
2025 Cycle (Current):
– November 2025 is Year 3 post-halving (May 2024)
– Bitcoin declining -16.5% so far in November 2025
– Reached local high in October at $126,080
– Outcome: TBD—either mid-cycle correction or early cycle top
The key difference: Bitcoin broke above its previous cycle high ($69,000) in October 2024, reaching $126,080 before the current correction. This suggests the cycle may still have room to run, as most cycles don’t peak until 12-18 months after breaking prior highs.
However, the velocity of the current decline and the breakdown of key technical levels (365-day moving average at $102,000) creates legitimate concern that this cycle could be compressing—peaking earlier than expected due to institutional involvement and faster adoption curves.
What’s Actually Causing the November 2025 Crash?
The current decline isn’t just about broken seasonality—it’s driven by specific, identifiable factors creating a perfect storm of selling pressure.
Factor 1: Long-Term Holder Distribution (The $3 Billion Signal)
The “smart money” isn’t buying the dip, they are selling into it. According to CryptoQuant, long-term holders (wallets active for 6+ months) have distributed approximately 815,000 BTC over the last 30 days, the highest level of distribution since January 2024.
- The Catalyst: On November 7, these holders realized over $3 billion in profits in a single day. This massive supply unlock overwhelmed spot demand just as Bitcoin was attempting to consolidate above $110,000.
Factor 2: Institutional Abandonment (Record ETF Outflows)
For most of 2024 and 2025, ETF inflows absorbed selling pressure. That buffer is now gone. November has seen approximately $2.96 billion in net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs.
- The Data: On November 19, BlackRock’s IBIT recorded a $523 million outflow, its largest single-day redemption in history. When the world’s largest asset manager flips from net buyer to record seller, it triggers algorithmic selling across the entire market.
Factor 3: The “Negative Skew” Anomaly
Analysts at Wintermute have identified a concerning shift in Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq. While Bitcoin normally rises with tech stocks, it is currently exhibiting “negative performance skew.”
- What this means: Bitcoin is falling twice as hard on red equity days but failing to rally on green equity days. This asymmetry is a classic sign of “buyer exhaustion,” indicating that capital is rotating out of crypto risk even when traditional markets stabilize.
Factor 4: Technical Breakdown (The $102k Line)
The market lost its most critical safety net on November 13 when Bitcoin broke below the 365-day moving average (situated at approximately $102,600).
- Why it matters: This trendline acted as the “bull market floor” throughout the 2023–2025 rally. Closing decisively below it has forced momentum traders and algorithmic bots to flip bearish, turning a dip into a structural breakdown.
Factor 5: The “Hawkish” Fed Repricing
The probability of a December Federal Reserve rate cut has collapsed from 95% in October to just ~50% as of mid-November. following Chair Powell’s comment that a cut is “not a foregone conclusion.”
- The Impact: Markets were pricing in cheap liquidity to fuel a year-end rally. With that liquidity now in doubt, the “risk-off” trade has strengthened the U.S. Dollar, mechanically suppressing Bitcoin prices.
Historical Cycles: Do November Corrections Break Bull Markets?
The critical question for long-term Bitcoin investors: does a negative November necessarily mean the bull cycle is over?
History provides mixed but ultimately hopeful answers.
November Corrections That Led to Lower Prices:
2018 (-36.57%): This November marked the climax of the 2018 bear market. Bitcoin collapsed from $6,300 to $4,000, eventually bottoming at $3,200 in December 2018. The bear market wasn’t over—it was ending, but painfully.
2019 (-17.27%): Bitcoin had rallied from $3,200 to $13,800 by June 2019, then corrected throughout summer and fall. November’s -17.27% decline extended the correction, but Bitcoin bottomed shortly after and began its 2020-2021 bull run.
2021 (-7.11%): This is the concerning parallel. Bitcoin peaked at $69,000 in November 2021 and never recovered during that cycle. The decline accelerated into a brutal 2022 bear market.
November Corrections That Led to Higher Prices:
2014 (+12.82% but weak): Despite finishing green, November 2014 was part of a long bear market. Bitcoin didn’t bottom until early 2015, then rallied in 2016-2017.
2023 (+8.81% but choppy): November 2023 saw modest gains during Bitcoin’s recovery phase, setting up the massive 2024 rally to new all-time highs.
The Pattern: November tends to mark inflection points. Negative Novembers either signal:
1. The final washout before a bottom (2018, 2019)
2. The beginning of a bear market (2021)
Which scenario applies to November 2025?
The Case for a Bottom: Why This Could Be Bullish
Despite the brutal price action, several indicators suggest November 2025’s weakness may represent a mid-cycle correction rather than a cycle-ending top.
1. Supply Held at Loss Still Moderate
Approximately 33% of Bitcoin’s supply is currently held at a loss—levels last seen in September 2024 during the previous re-accumulation phase. While this sounds bearish, it is nowhere near the 50-60% levels typical of true bear market bottoms.
- The Bullish Divergence: Even at current prices (~$92,000), approximately 67-72% of the total BTC supply remains in profit. This structure confirms we are experiencing a deep pullback within a broader uptrend, not a fundamental market breakdown.
2. Short-Term Holders Are Capitulating
The Short-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) currently reads 0.9904—below the neutral 1.0 threshold. This indicates that recent buyers are selling at a loss, a classic sign of capitulation that transfers coins from “weak hands” to long-term accumulators.
- Historical Context: During the August 2024 correction, SOPR fell to 0.9752 shortly before Bitcoin bottomed and rallied 40% over the following two months. Current levels suggest we are approaching similar seller exhaustion.
3. Institutional Holdings Remain Robust
Despite the headlines about outflows, spot Bitcoin ETFs still hold over $92 billion in assets—capital that did not exist in previous cycles. Even with November’s $2.96 billion in redemptions, the institutional “floor” supporting Bitcoin is dramatically higher than in 2021 or 2018.
4. The “Death Cross” Paradox
Bitcoin confirmed a death cross (50-day MA crossing below 200-day MA) on November 16. While traditionally bearish, this specific signal has acted as a contrarian indicator in the current cycle. Previous death crosses in September 2023 and August 2024 both marked local bottoms, preceding significant rallies within 1-2 weeks.
5. “Typical Mid-Cycle Retracement”
Some analysts noted this week that the current drawdown mirrors past mid-cycle corrections. The ~27% drop from the October high of $126,080 aligns with the 20-30% flushes seen throughout the 2023-2025 bull market. If historical patterns hold, this deep leverage washout typically sets the stage for a recovery within 4-6 weeks.
What Happens Next: Three Scenarios for December
As November draws to a close, traders face three potential paths for Bitcoin into the year-end.
Scenario 1: Recovery Rally (Probability: 40%)
The Case: November’s decline represents capitulation selling and year-end tax-loss harvesting. December brings renewed institutional buying as:
– Federal Reserve delivers dovish rate cut
– Year-end selling pressure subsides
– New capital allocations deploy in January
– Technical oversold conditions attract buyers
Price Target: Bitcoin reclaims $100,000-$105,000 by year-end
Historical Parallel: Similar to December 2019, when Bitcoin bottomed after a brutal November and began rallying into 2020
Scenario 2: Extended Consolidation (Probability: 35%)
The Case: Bitcoin enters a multi-month consolidation phase between $85,000-$95,000 as markets digest institutional outflows, await clearer Fed policy direction, and reset technical indicators. No immediate collapse, but no explosive rally either.
Price Target: Bitcoin range-bound $88,000-$95,000 through Q1 2026
Historical Parallel: Similar to early 2024, when Bitcoin consolidated after ETF launches before eventually rallying
Scenario 3: Bear Market Confirmation (Probability: 25%)
The Case: November 2025 marks a cycle top similar to November 2021. Bitcoin fails to reclaim $100,000, breaks below $85,000 support, and enters a prolonged bear market driven by:
– Fed maintaining hawkish stance
– Global recession fears materializing
– Institutional capital rotating to other assets
– Technical breakdown accelerating
Price Target: Bitcoin $70,000-$75,000 by Q1 2026; $50,000-$60,000 by mid-2026
Historical Parallel: 2021-2022 cycle top and subsequent 75% decline
Conclusion: Moonvember’s Reputation Damaged, But Not Destroyed
November 2025 has definitively shattered the “Moonvember” narrative that Bitcoin reliably rallies during the year’s eleventh month. With a 16.5% decline, the worst November performance since 2019. The month has proven once again that seasonal patterns are descriptive, not predictive.
The 42% average November return that fueled bullish expectations was always a statistical mirage, distorted by 2013’s outlier performance. The median November return of 8.81% reflects reality far better: November is volatile, not reliably bullish.
However, the bearish November doesn’t necessarily signal the end of Bitcoin’s current bull cycle. Historical analysis reveals that negative Novembers have often preceded significant rallies (2019) or marked final washouts before bottoms (2018). Only in 2021 did a negative November mark a definitive cycle top.
The next 30-45 days will be decisive. If Bitcoin can reclaim the $100,000-$102,000 range and hold it into the year-end, the bull case remains intact. If it breaks decisively below $85,000, the probability increases that November 2025 will be remembered alongside November 2021 as the month the music stopped.
For now, “Moonvember” has become “Gloomvember.” Whether it becomes a forgotten correction or a historic turning point depends on what happens next.
Disclaimer: This content is for educational and reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset investments carry high risk. Please evaluate carefully and assume full responsibility for your own decisions.
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