For over a decade, the crypto market has operated under a fairly clear model: a four-year cycle revolving around the Bitcoin Halving event. After each halving, prices would surge and then enter a prolonged correction phase. The “four-year cycle” theory emerged from this pattern, becoming a guiding principle for multiple generations of traders and investors.
However, as we move into 2025, the landscape has changed. Bitcoin is no longer an experimental asset but has become an investment vehicle embraced by financial institutions, ETFs, and large enterprises.
The most important question now is: Is crypto still following the four-year cycle, or has it entered a more complex market structure? And if it has changed, what should investors do?
1. The History of Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle
Over the past decade, Bitcoin has become one of the most controversial assets in modern financial history. From an experimental idea of decentralized money, Bitcoin has grown into a multi-trillion-dollar market with participation from institutions, investment funds, and even sovereign nations.
Alongside this maturity, the four-year cycle of Bitcoin has been widely discussed in the crypto investment community. It is the belief that after each halving, Bitcoin’s price enters a strong growth phase, reaches a peak, and then falls into a decline.
BTC price fluctuations through halving periods
Original market structure:
- Miners were the largest source of BTC supply, and halving reduced that supply.
- Reduced supply leads to price increase, individual FOMO drives further price increase.
- At a certain threshold, macroeconomics, interest rates, and inflation push the market into a correction cycle.
This mechanism worked almost perfectly because:
- Bitcoin then dominated the majority of crypto market cap.
- Stablecoins were scarce with little internal liquidity.
- Financial institutions and nations were minimally involved.
- DeFi was only in its infancy.
- The deflationary supply shock had a strong impact on price.
During this period, crypto behaved more like a commodity than a financial market.
2. Reasons Why the Four-Year Cycle is Weakening
2.1 Spot ETF and Institutional Capital Emergence
The launch of Bitcoin Spot ETFs in the United States in 2024 marked the biggest turning point for the crypto cycle to date. In just a few months, Bitcoin became a mainstream financial asset comparable to gold, bonds, or stock ETFs.
This fundamentally changed capital flows into Bitcoin. Unlike previous cycles where supply and demand surged around halving, ETFs now buy BTC consistently every day based on asset allocation strategies. This institutional capital is stable, continuous, and largely indifferent to whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, causing the traditional “post-halving price explosion” to fade and be replaced by steady accumulation.
List of Bitcoin ETFs
Market psychology also shifted. Institutions do not FOMO, panic, or chase short-term narratives like retail traders. They operate under process-driven and risk management frameworks, reducing volatility around halving and diminishing the central role of the four-year cycle based on emotional behavior.
2.2 Miners Are No Longer the Dominant Supply
In previous cycles, miners were the largest source of BTC supply. Halving would cut rewards by 50%, reducing selling pressure and causing prices to spike.
Since 2024: Miners account for less than 10 percent of newly sold BTC.ETFs, institutions, and companies like MicroStrategy purchase multiples of the miners’ production. A significant portion of BTC is held in cold storage, funds, corporations, and sovereign reserves, effectively removing it from circulation.
Miner rewards through BTC halvings
This means halving no longer creates a supply shock as it once did. Miner supply has become too small to determine the cycle. Therefore, the four-year cycle is no longer more than a psychological milestone rather than a market-driving engine.
2.3 Stablecoin Explosion and Other Factors
The rapid growth of stablecoins from 2017 to 2025 has completely changed market dynamics. USDT, USDC, and numerous new stablecoins provide endogenous liquidity, enabling continuous capital circulation without reliance on fiat like previous cycles.
Previously, crypto inflows and outflows were seasonal, and halving acted as a trigger for new capital. Now stablecoins can increase supply according to trading demand, decoupling market liquidity from halving and significantly blurring the traditional four-year rhythm.
At the same time, the rise of DeFi and mature blockchain ecosystems has created a multi-centered market structure. Ethereum moves with staking cycles and infrastructure upgrades, Solana with user growth and meme adoption, TON through the Telegram ecosystem, and BSC, Sui, Aptos, and Bitcoin L2s create their own growth cycles.
With DeFi maturity and each ecosystem following its own logic, the market no longer moves in a single synchronized rhythm. Crypto today behaves more like the stock market, where each sector, chain, and narrative has independent cycles, no longer confined to a four-year template.
2.4 Macroeconomic Impact and Technological Development
Crypto is no longer operating in isolation but is strongly influenced by global macro variables and policies. Fed interest rates, USD liquidity, ETF flows from pension funds, stablecoin regulations, geopolitical factors, and asset tokenization trends all generate independent volatility cycles, often stronger than halving.
Correlation between BTC price and FED rate cut rate
Meanwhile, technology and new narratives accelerate at remarkable speed. From AI combined with blockchain, restaking, modular blockchains, Bitcoin L2s to Web3 neobanks, MemeFi, SocialFi, stablecoin yields, Game AI, and meme launchpads, each narrative can trigger a mini bull-run independently, completely detached from halving timing.
3. Why the Four-Year Cycle Can Still Exist
Even though the influence of Bitcoin halving has diminished, the four-year cycle has not entirely disappeared.
First, human behavior remains cyclical. Retail actions such as FOMO, panic, or bubble behavior still generate wave patterns during bull runs. This exists in all markets, from dot-com stocks to housing to traditional equities, and crypto is no exception. Despite institutional dominance, retail continues to drive narratives and short-term price surges.
Correlation of Greed and Fear Index with BTC Price
Second, halving still serves as a psychological anchor. It attracts attention, generates narratives, and provides a seasonal framework, drawing media and retail engagement. Halving may no longer cause the strong price surge it once did, but it still offers timing cues, giving the market a general upward tendency afterward.
Finally, crypto remains a risk asset, which typically operates in 3–5 year cycles. This is comparable to the traditional four-year rhythm, spanning equities, cheap-to-expensive money cycles, and global liquidity. As crypto integrates more deeply with global finance, the four-year rhythm persists, albeit not as synchronized as in past cycles.
4. The Four-Year Cycle Still Exists but Its Central Role Has Ended
Despite new influences, Bitcoin still partly follows the four-year cycle. Historically, after each halving, BTC tends to reach higher peaks than the previous cycle, though growth margins have decreased.
However, halving is no longer the main driver of market growth, liquidity, or supply-demand. Crypto now operates under a multi-layered, multi-rhythm, multi-narrative model. Macro cycles driven by Fed policies, interest rates, USD, and bonds provide a 3–5 year foundation; stablecoin liquidity opens 12–24 month rhythms controlling capital and TVL; narratives such as Meme, AI, AI agents, RWA, or L2s create mini bull-runs of 1–6 months where most profits are generated. Halving now serves only as a psychological signal, a reference point rather than a market-defining factor. In this new structure, investors need a different strategy:
- Do not rely solely on halving to time bull runs.
- Monitor stablecoin liquidity, as this is the real driver of endogenous capital.
- Focus on narratives, where 90% of alpha is generated, from AI chains, MemeFi, RWA, Restaking,..
- Analyze each ecosystem separately: Solana, Ethereum, BNB Chain, Base, all have their own growth rhythms.
- Instead of only following halving, observe flows from ETFs and institutions, as they are the main market-driving forces today.
- Instead of only following halving, observe flows from ETFs and institutions, as they are the main market-driving forces today.
Ultimately, the four-year cycle has not disappeared. It has simply been absorbed into a larger structure. Halving is now a reference signal, a psychological anchor, no longer capable of leading the entire market. In the current multi-layered model, it is just one layer among many overlapping rhythms, no longer the ultimate market driver as it was from 2013 to 2021.
5. Halving Cycle 2024–2028: A Natural Development
Entering 2025, it is clear the four-year cycle has not vanished but is undergoing profound change. The 2024 halving did not trigger an immediate bull run but coincided with a significant milestone: the launch of the Bitcoin Spot ETF in the US. This event brought stable institutional capital, increasing long-term purchasing power and gradually restoring prices in late 2024 and early 2025. The post-halving price mechanism still exists, but the driver has shifted from supply reduction to institutional demand increase.
Bitcoin Price Chart
This reflects the natural maturation of the market. Bitcoin is shifting from a short-term speculative asset to a long-term store of value, similar to gold. As long-term investors and institutions dominate, volatility decreases, future cycles become less dramatic, and prices reflect fundamentals, real capital flows, and macro context.
The 2024–2028 cycle may be the last in which halving strongly influences market behavior. After that, monetary policy, ETF flows, and institutional capital will become the primary drivers. Retail investors will need to view the market through a macro lens rather than simply relying on the halving calendar.
Simultaneously, as Bitcoin stabilizes and is positioned as digital gold, investors will seek profits in altcoins, focusing on on-chain flows, products with real utility, and sustainable business models. Infrastructure tokens such as DeFi protocols, layer 2s, or data storage networks will gradually decouple from BTC volatility.
This differentiation indicates that the crypto cycle will become multidimensional: Bitcoin serves as the value foundation, while altcoins generate capital as the “growth stocks” of the on-chain era. To excel during 2024–2028, investors need to shift from a Bitcoin-cycle mindset to project valuation and fundamental analysis.
6. Conclusion
The four-year cycle is the DNA of Bitcoin, tied to fixed supply programming and human psychology. It has shaped how people view the market for more than a decade. As Bitcoin matures, macro factors, institutional flows, and real-world data are replacing halving as the main driver.
The four-year cycle still exists but is no longer an absolute guide. It is now more a symbol of belief and behavior than a direct price-driving mechanism. The legacy of halving remains, but Bitcoin is transitioning from wave-driven speculative asset to structured investment asset. Investors who understand market mechanics, track capital flows, and analyze macro conditions will lead in this new phase.
Disclaimer : This content does not constitute investment, tax, legal, financial, or accounting advice. MEXC provides this information for educational purposes only. Always do your own research, understand the risks, and invest responsibly.
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