XRP Outlook: Is a 2025 “Full Send” Ahead?

Overview: XRP momentum and trader conviction

After a recent pullback, XRP has captured renewed attention from traders who expect a sizeable rebound if key technical thresholds are reclaimed. Despite an 8% decline over the prior week, several prominent market participants are rebuilding exposure, arguing XRP’s structural strengths and evolving ecosystem could fuel outperformance once broader market conditions normalize.

That view rests on two central ideas: first, Bitcoin’s price action has continued to influence altcoin movement; and second, XRP-specific on-chain metrics and protocol-level development suggest the token remains well-positioned for a meaningful recovery in 2025.

What traders are saying

Notable traders have described a strategy of gradually re-establishing positions in XRP rather than rotating back into a wider basket of altcoins. The rationale is simple: XRP has historically shown strong relative performance during altcoin rotations, and a decisive break above a clearly defined resistance level could reclaim prior losses and trigger momentum-driven buying.

One recurring theme among these traders is the concept of a “full send” — a rapid, conviction-led move higher that follows a clean technical breakout. Market participants are watching a marked resistance zone that, if overcome, would effectively erase the previous mid-October dump and reset sentiment.

Why traders are cautious

• Macro and Bitcoin price dynamics continue to dictate risk appetite.
• Many holders remain underwater, which can amplify sell pressure on weaker rallies.
• Volatility and liquidity shifts require careful position sizing.

On-chain context: Profitability and supply dynamics

On-chain analytics show that XRP’s supply in profit recently fell to roughly 58.5%, the lowest level observed since late 2024. Put another way, about 41.5% of circulating supply — an estimated ~26.5 billion XRP — remains below holders’ purchase prices.

That distribution creates a nuanced market structure. High proportions of unrealized losses can lead to elevated selling pressure when prices drop further, as sidelined holders look to exit. At the same time, deep resets like this have historically preceded sharp mean-reversion rallies, as capitulation clears the way for fresh inflows and renewed conviction.

Key implications of a low supply-in-profit metric

• Short-term selling pressure may remain elevated until recovery stabilizes.
• Capitulation phases can create attractive entry points for long-term holders.
• Market structure becomes top-heavy, increasing the potential velocity of directional moves.

Protocol evolution and DeFi integration

Beyond price metrics, XRP’s ecosystem continues to mature. Work on programmable features, smart-contract-style capabilities, and cross-chain integrations has progressed through 2025, broadening the use cases available on the XRP Ledger and adjacent networks.

Growing DeFi activity—spanning liquidity protocols, cross-chain bridges, and tokenized offerings—has the potential to increase transaction demand and on-ledger utility. As integrations deepen, the narrative for XRP shifts from purely a payments-focused token to one with expanding native and wrapped utility across decentralized finance.

Why protocol developments matter for price action

• New use cases can drive sustained demand and reduce sell-side pressure from short-term holders.
• Improved programmability attracts builders and liquidity providers, helping bootstrap organic activity.
• Cross-chain bridges and integrations facilitate capital inflows from other ecosystems.

Macro and market conditions in 2025

The wider macro picture in 2025 continues to shape cryptocurrency flows. A few themes to monitor:

• Institutional participation and product innovation remain primary drivers of large inflows and outflows.
• Bitcoin’s stability—and whether it can sustain rally periods without sharp corrections—will determine opportunities for altcoins.
• Monetary policy, interest rate expectations, and liquidity in traditional markets influence risk appetite across digital assets.

In 2025, the potential for renewed altcoin season depends heavily on Bitcoin maintaining a trend that allows capital to rotate into higher-beta assets. When BTC’s dominance moderates and correlation weakens, historically it has opened pathways for tokens like XRP to outperform.

Technical setup: Levels to watch

Traders who anticipate a “full send” look for a clean break and daily close above a resistance cluster that corresponds to the October dump. Confirming this breakout with decent volume and follow-through would be a bullish signal and could lead to rapid short-covering and fresh entries.

Key technical considerations include:

• Immediate support zones that have historically halted downtrends.
• The resistance band that represents the October decline — reclaiming this would be materially bullish.
• Volume confirmation and relative strength compared with Bitcoin.

Risk management and trade ideas

For traders and investors considering exposure to XRP in 2025, the following principles are advisable:

• Scale into positions rather than committing full size at once. Gradual accumulation reduces the impact of volatility.
• Use defined stop-loss levels based on technical support to protect capital in adverse scenarios.
• Monitor correlation with Bitcoin—if BTC weakness accelerates, altcoin rallies often lose steam.
• Consider on-chain metrics (supply in profit, exchange flows, active addresses) as part of the decision framework, not in isolation.

Longer-term investors may view current weakness as a buying opportunity if they have a multi-year horizon and confidence in protocol developments. Traders seeking a breakout play should wait for confirmation above the resistance zone and manage risk with position sizing and stops.

On-chain metrics to monitor closely

Beyond supply-in-profit, pay attention to these on-chain indicators that can provide early clues about momentum shifts:

• Exchange inflows and outflows — rising inflows can indicate selling pressure; sustained outflows often suggest accumulation.
• Active addresses and transaction counts — growth in activity can precede price appreciation.
• Whale concentration — large holder behavior can drive volatility and directional moves.
• Liquidity in decentralized venues and order-book depth — deeper liquidity supports larger moves with less slippage.

Scenario analysis: What could trigger the “full send”?

A few scenarios could converge to trigger a strong XRP rally:

• Bitcoin stabilizes or consolidates, reducing its suppressive effect on altcoins and enabling capital rotation.
• XRP reclaims the marked resistance with solid volume and closes convincingly above it, clearing the October dump.
• On-chain metrics show reduced sell pressure (decreasing exchange inflows, rising outflows) alongside increased utility and DeFi activity.
• Macro liquidity conditions improve, encouraging higher-risk allocations into digital assets.

When multiple factors align, the market can move quickly. The combination of reduced selling pressure and fresh demand can produce outsized returns for tokens that have already experienced deep resets.

Conclusion: Prepare for volatility, but watch the signal

XRP’s current setup in 2025 presents both risk and opportunity. A sizable portion of supply remains underwater, which can generate downside pressure. At the same time, ecosystem upgrades and expanding DeFi activity increase the potential for strong mean-reversion rallies once selling pressure abates.

For traders and investors, the prudent approach is to watch for a confirmed breakout above the highlighted resistance, manage position sizes, and follow key on-chain signals. If the breakout arrives with conviction and supportive macro conditions, the so-called “full send” move many are discussing could materialize — but it will likely be accompanied by typical crypto-market volatility.

As always, ensure risk management is front and center and align exposure with your investment horizon and risk tolerance.

Disclaimer: This post is a compilation of publicly available information.
MEXC does not verify or guarantee the accuracy of third-party content.
Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment or participation decisions.