Bitcoin faced severe volatility in September 2025, with its price dropping below $110,000, but fundamental factors like institutional adoption and ETF funds continue to provide support. According to the chart analysis presented in this article, if the price stays above $100,000, there is a possibility of a rally in the fourth quarter, although recent sales by long-term holders have created risks.
Ethereum has also fluctuated around $4,000, and with capital exit from ETFand whale activity, which can signal different things, a warning of a decline can be predicted. Evidence points towards selling pressure, but advancements like the SWIFT test on Ethereum’s second layer create a positive outlook for long-term adoption.
1. Bitcoin Fundamental Analysis
Bitcoin BTCin the third quarter of 2025, after reaching above $120,000 in July, lost its upward momentum and is now stabilizing around $110,000. Recent sales that began on September 21 liquidated over $1.5 billion in leveraged long positions and dragged the price below $111,000. The GDP revision for the U.S. to 3.8% for the second quarter increased the chances of no change in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate, bringing the 10-year Treasury yield close to 4.2%, which has heightened risk aversion in the crypto markets.
However, the outlook for the fourth quarter is promising, as Bitcoin has remained above the 50-week moving average (around $100,000) and the 14-week RSI is above 45.
2. Ethereum Fundamental Analysis
Ethereum ETH It is fluctuating around 4,000 dollars, but this range is very fragile. A net outflow of 796 million dollars from ETH spot ETFs this week, and 388 million dollars in the month, indicates the first month of capital outflow since March. The Liveliness metric has reached 0.70, indicating selling by long-term holders. Nevertheless, whale activity is positive: two dormant wallets from 2018 transferred 200,000 ETH worth (785 million dollars), and more than 431,000 ETH worth (1.7 billion dollars) was entered into large wallets.
Predictions such as reaching 15,000 dollars by the end of 2025 by Tom Lee are based on technological advancements.
3. Comparative table of price and recent changes
| Cryptocurrency | Current price (September 27, 2025) | Daily change | Monthly change (September) | Approximate market cap |
| Bitcoin | About 110,000 dollars | -1.6% | -10% from the August peak | Over 2 trillion dollars |
| Ethereum | About 4,000 dollars | +0.26% | -4.5% recently | About 480 billion dollars |
4. Technical analysis of Bitcoin BTC
The daily chart of Bitcoin indicates a corrective trend after a strong rally in the past months. The price has risen from a low of about 100,000 dollars to a peak of 124,530 dollars, but then faced severe fluctuations and dropped below 110,000 dollars. This pattern resembles a symmetrical triangle pattern in price consolidation where the price is compressed between support and resistance levels. Trading volume has been relatively low, indicating a lack of market decision-making, but signs of consolidation around 109,000 dollars are visible.
4.1 Analysis of support and resistance levels
Based on the chart MEXC Exchange In the daily timeframe, Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase after reaching a peak of around $124,000 in recent months and is now stabilizing around $109,000. The main support is at $100,000 (aligned with the 50-week moving average), and breaking it could neutralize the trend. Immediate resistance is seen at $110,000 (recent peak) and then at $112,000 (Ichimoku cloud).
Support Levels:
Immediate Level: $109,000 (previous peak that has now turned into support and aligns with the horizontal line in the chart). This level coincides with an oversold RSI and could be a price reversal point.
Medium Level: $100,000 (50-week moving average and bottom of the trend channel). Breaking this level could mean the end of the medium-term upward trend.
Deep Level: $74,000 (historical level and long-term support). Sources like FOREX.com identify this level as critical in the event of a bearish flip in the cycle.
Resistance Levels:
Immediate Level: $110,000 (recent peak and upper boundary of the triangle).
Medium Level: $112,000 (Ichimoku cloud and dynamic resistance). Breaking this level could signal a strong bullish move.
Upper Level: $117,000 – $119,000 (CME gap and August peak). Also, Investtech notes that Bitcoin has broken the bottom of the upward channel, which slows the rate of growth, but higher resistances remain valid.
4.2 Bullish and Bearish Predictions for BTC
Bullish Scenario: If the price stabilizes above $110,000 and trading volume increases, there is a likelihood of a breakout from the triangle pattern upward. The initial target is $117,000 (to fill the gap), and then $119,000 – $131,000 in the fourth quarter. This scenario is supported by an RSI above 45 on the weekly chart, and posts like CryptOpus’s analysis indicate potential for reversal. External factors such as supportive monetary policies (interest rate cuts) can strengthen this trend.
Bearish Outlook: A break below $109,000 could trigger sell-stops and drag the price down to $100,000-$102,000. The weekly chart shows a strong bearish trend, and posts on X like laugh indicate more downside potential. If selling volume increases, a drop to $74,000 is likely, especially considering capital outflows from ETFs and macroeconomic pressures such as a GDP revision in the US.
4.3 Indicator Analysis
MACD: In the chart, the histogram is red and negative. This indicates bearish momentum and a downward cross that confirms selling pressure. However, if the histogram turns positive, a reversal signal may occur.
RSI: Levels below 50 indicate neutral to oversold conditions, which could be a buying point, but below 30 (like some posts on X) signals a deep oversold warning. This indicator aligns with Yahoo Finance analysis, which introduces a daily RSI below 30 as a potential turning point.
Other Indicators: Moving averages (like the 50-week MA) provide support, but low volume (near the bottom) increases risk.
5.Technical Analysis of Ethereum ETH
Ethereum (ETH) Chart It indicates that it is in a downward phase and has formed a descending triangle pattern, which often signals the continuation of the downward trend. The price around $4000 acts as immediate support, with nearby resistance in the $4100 range; a break below $3900 may accelerate the price decline, while holding above it could give buyers hope. Indicators like RSI show oversold levels (around 30), which likely points to a rally, but MACD remains bearish, indicating weakness in momentum, whether this setup is in favor of sellers or reversing. Leading scenarios tend to test lower supports if downward pressure continues, but positive advancements in the Ethereum ecosystem, such as layer 2 scalability, could support a recovery.
5.1 Support and Resistance Levels
The daily chart shows a horizontal support line near $4000, which has held recent lows but shows signs of weakness. Lower support from previous bounces is around $3300-$3500, which may act as a safety net if the price declines further. Resistance is at the downward trendline around $4100-$4200, where sellers have repeatedly halted the upward price movement; a break above it could change sentiment. Higher resistance levels include minor resistance at $4065 and stronger obstacles up to $4383, based on moving averages and recent highs.
5.2 Indicator Analysis
MACD: MACD with the signal line above the line and negative histogram confirms the bearish momentum and continued control by sellers.
RSI: (Relative Strength Index) provides mixed readings: RSI6 at 29.702 (oversold), RSI12 at 35.5267, and RSI24 at 44.7098. Levels below 30 traditionally signal seller fatigue and may lead to the start of an upward trend.
5.3 Upcoming Scenarios
In the bearish scenario, a break below $4000 could accelerate further declines, with targets for continued decline first at $3700 and then at $3300-3500.
Conversely, the bullish scenario involves reclaiming the downtrend line at $4100 with increasing volume, which could lead to a target of $4400-4500.
Summary
Overall, considering the indicators, trading volume, and most importantly, whale activity, significant selling by institutional companies signals a continuation of the downward trend. Additionally, geopolitical tensions involving Russia and NATO could lead to capital outflows from high-risk assets such as Bitcoin BTC and Ethereum ETH. Keeping in mind the predictions of upcoming scenarios, we hope you can make the best decision.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is not investment advice and should not be considered as a basis for financial decision-making. Investing in cryptocurrencies carries high market risk. Please trade cautiously. MEXC exchange takes no responsibility for any potential losses.
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